On the Distinction between Truthful, Invisible, False and Unobserved Events

In this paper we present an event existence classification framework based on five business criteria. As a result we are able to distinguish thirteen event types distributed over four categories, i.e. truthful, invisible, false and unobserved events. Currently, several of these event types are not commonly dealt with in business process analytics research. Based on the proposed framework we situate the different business process analytics research areas and indicate the potential issues for each field. A real world case will be elaborated to demonstrate the relevance of the event classification framework

Benchmarking sampling techniques for imbalance learning in churn prediction

Class imbalance presents significant challenges to customer churn prediction. Many data-level sampling solutions have been developed to deal with this issue. In this paper, we comprehensively compare the performance of several state-of-the-art sampling techniques in the context of churn prediction. A recently developed maximum profit criterion is used as one of the main performance measures to offer more insights from the perspective of cost-benefit. The experimental results show that the impact of sampling methods depends on the used evaluation metric and that the impact pattern is interrelated with the classifiers. An in-depth exploration of the reaction patterns is conducted, and suitable sampling strategies are recommended for each situation. Furthermore, we also discuss the setting of the sampling rate in the empirical comparison. Our findings will offer a useful guideline for the use of sampling methods in the context of churn prediction.</p

Optimization framework for DFG-based automated process discovery approaches

The problem of automatically discovering business process models from event logs has been intensely investigated in the past two decades, leading to a wide range of approaches that strike various trade-offs between accuracy, model complexity, and execution time. A few studies have suggested that the accuracy of automated process discovery approaches can be enhanced by means of metaheuristic optimization techniques. However, these studies have remained at the level of proposals without validation on real-life datasets or they have only considered one metaheuristic in isolation. This article presents a metaheuristic optimization framework for automated process discovery. The key idea of the framework is to construct a directly-follows graph (DFG) from the event log, to perturb this DFG so as to generate new candidate solutions, and to apply a DFG-based automated process discovery approach in order to derive a process model from each DFG. The framework can be instantiated by linking it to an automated process discovery approach, an optimization metaheuristic, and the quality measure to be optimized (e.g., fitness, precision, F-score). The article considers several instantiations of the framework corresponding to four optimization metaheuristics, three automated process discovery approaches (Inductive Miner—directly-follows, Fodina, and Split Miner), and one accuracy measure (Markovian F-score). These framework instances are compared using a set of 20 real-life event logs. The evaluation shows that metaheuristic optimization consistently yields visible improvements in F-score for all the three automated process discovery approaches, at the cost of execution times in the order of minutes, versus seconds for the baseline approaches.</p

Revising history for cost-informed process improvement

Organisations are constantly seeking new ways to improve operational efficiencies. This study investigates a novel way to identify potential efficiency gains in business operations by observing how they were carried out in the past and then exploring better ways of executing them by taking into account trade-offs between time, cost and resource utilisation. This paper demonstrates how these trade-offs can be incorporated in the assessment of alternative process execution scenarios by making use of a cost environment. A number of optimisation techniques are proposed to explore and assess alternative execution scenarios. The objective function is represented by a cost structure that captures different process dimensions. An experimental evaluation is conducted to analyse the performance and scalability of the optimisation techniques: <i>integer linear programming (ILP)</i>, hill climbing, tabu search, and our earlier proposed hybrid genetic algorithm approach. The findings demonstrate that the hybrid genetic algorithm is scalable and performs better compared to other techniques. Moreover, we argue that the use of ILP is unrealistic in this setup and cannot handle complex cost functions such as the ones we propose. Finally, we show how cost-related insights can be gained from improved execution scenarios and how these can be utilised to put forward recommendations for reducing process-related cost and overhead within organisations

Automated process discovery

An event log contains a historical record of the steps taken in a business process. An event log consists of traces, one for each case, customer, order, etc. in the process. A trace contains events, which represent the steps (activities) that were taken for a particular case, customer, order, etc.An example of an event log derived from an insurance claim handling process is [〈receive claim, check difficulty, decide claim, notify customer〉10, 〈receive claim, check difficulty, check fraud, decide claim, notify customer〉5]. This event log consists of 15 traces, corresponding to 15 claims made in the process. In 10 of these traces, the claim was received, its difficulty assessed, the claim was decided and the customer was notified..